Over 6% of the likely voters surveyed indicated they would vote for someone besides McConnell and McGrath, with nearly 6% still undecided. Quinnipiac poll: Kentucky Senate Mitch McConnell (R) 49% Amy McGrath (D) 44%. All Latest Polls; 2020 Election Polls; 2020 Presidential Polls; 2020 Senate Polls; 2020 House Polls; 2020 Governor Polls; Presidential Approval Polls; Generic Congressional Polls; 2020 Elections. Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large. General election candidates The general election candidate list is incomplete. Instead, keeping McConnell occupied on his own race has to be Democrats' goal. Amy McGrath 7. McConnell (R) Gray (D) Spread; Gravis Gravis: 6/11 - 6/12: 741 RV: 3.6: 49: 41: McConnell +8 See the degree to which one party is most likely to win any 2020 Senate race. NPR writes that: Charles Booker 3. South Carolina Senate Lindsey Graham (R) 44% Jaime Harrison (D) 44%. Voting History and Trends by State Who Represents Me? Mary Ann Tobin Withdrew, disqualified, or did not make ballot 1. Republican Incumbent Mitch McConnell is running for re-election in 2020. Ditto for if he is pinned down in Kentucky rather than traveling across the country for events to collect cash for the most vulnerable GOP incumbents. In each episode of his weekly YouTube show, Chris Cillizza will delve a little deeper into the surreal world of politics. Remember that the amount of money -- via national parties and super PACS -- that will be spent on the battle for the Senate is finite. While a … (The last Democrat to win a Senate race in Kentucky was Sen. Wendell Ford back in 1992. He became Senate majority leader in 2015. RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Kentucky Senate - McConnell vs. McGrath Josh… In fact, there are roughly a dozen GOP seats that would likely fall before McConnell loses. RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Kentucky Senate - McConnell vs. McGrath Subscribe. ), And this is where strategy comes in. Well, that's $20 million that can't be spent on trying to reelect Arizona Sen. Martha McSally. Brad Barron(L) 2. Or Maine Sen. Susan Collins. Andrew Maynard 6. McConnell, because he is not only the most powerful Republican in the Senate but also because he raised tens of millions for the party and its related super PACs (of which the major one is staffed by longtime McConnell allies), will get as much money from these groups as he needs to win. It's been a rough couple of weeks for President Donald Trump, and that's squeezing some GOP senators who were already facing competitive reelections. That's a BIG deal. You get the idea. Come back to see who is projected to win this seat. While Booker, the youngest black Kentucky lawmaker at 35 years old, got the lion's share of positive press attention in the final weeks of the primary race, there was a reason that, She raised more than $8 million in 2018 in a losing big for House against Rep. Andy Barr in the 6th Congressional District. Mike Broihier 4. ?, you say. So, let's say that $20 million gets spent on the Kentucky race to make sure that McConnell is insulated from the TV ad onslaught that McGrath's fundraising can buy. Track the 2020 Kentucky Senate Election here. State Senate Interactive Map State House Interactive Map 2018 Election Results Maine Senate Sara Gideon (D) 47% Susan Collins (R) 43% — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) August 6, 2020. Latest Polls. Latest forecasts and polls for the 2020 Senate elections by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight. Sign In | Subscribe Ad ... 2020 National Polls. Mitch McConnell isn't going to lose this fall! Let's, for the sake of explaining how this works, say there is $200 million that Republican committees and super PACs have to spend on all of the Senate races in the country this fall. The dismal showings for Republican incumbents in the Senate mirror President Donald Trump’s own predicament. Incumbent Mitch McConnell (R), Amy McGrath (D), Brad Barron (L), and Randall Lee Teegarden (Unaffiliated) are running in the November 3, 2020 general election for U.S. Senate in Kentucky.. McConnell was first elected in 1984. — Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) June 8, 2020. Amid all of the grilling and fireworks, you may have missed a development that could fundamentally impact the fight for the Senate majority this fall: … Because if she can raise, let's say, $80 million total, then McConnell and the national Republican Party apparatus are also going to have to spend heavily to ensure he wins again -- despite the clear Republican lean of the state at the federal level. Senate Democrats don't need Kentucky to get to the majority. Hear his opinion now, Democrat and Republican senators' maskless hug stirs outrage, Avlon: This is just another of the President's 20,000 lies, Melania Trump reveals Barron Trump contracted Covid-19, Obama: Trump's call for indictment was 'absurd', Feds chased suspected foreign link to Trump's 2016 campaign cash for 3 years, Trump rally billboard says 'superspreader event this way.' times in Kentucky and is currently the most influential Republican -- aside from President Donald Trump -- in Washington. Kentucky Senate - McConnell vs. Gray | Polling Data. In a Change Research poll conducted earlier this year, McGrath and McConnell were deadlocked at 41 percent support among likely voters. And then there's this to consider: If McConnell, the best fundraiser among Senate Republicans, is focused on raising money for his own reelection race, he can't raise as much money for all of those senators I just named above. And likely would not have been the case if Booker managed to topple McGrath in the primary. And McGrath makes that much more likely. All she has to do is be competitive enough that she a) keeps McConnell focused on his own race and b) forces him (and, potentially, the national Republican Party) to spend time and money ensuring that the Republican leader wins. Jimmy Ausbrooks 2. It will be updated following the primary on June 23, 2020. RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Kentucky Senate - McConnell vs. Gray Sign In. It's how he has won six(!) (McGrath became a viral sensation thanks to, Now, it's worth noting here that McGrath is a less able campaigner than she is a fundraiser. Which, in the main, is probably right! Poll Date Sample MoE. What! Polls. (Literally. But McGrath doesn't need to beat McConnell to reshape the Senate map. Click to subscribe! Winning, when it comes to McConnell, isn't necessarily the goal for Senate Democrats as they try to net the three seats (if Joe Biden wins the White House) or four (if he doesn't) they need for the majority. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Maggie Jo Hilliard 5. McConnell is a very able politician. Derek Leonard Petteys(Reform Party) 3. Or Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler. ), Graham says 'good old days' segregation comment was sarcasm, Amy McGrath beat Charles Booker to win the Kentucky Democratic primary, Senate Democrats' campaign arm had endorsed McGrath's candidacy, raised $41 million for her Senate campaign. Or North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis. Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. That’s not great for Republicans! 1. Alyssa Dara McDowell(Independent) Democratic primary candidates 1. (The actual number is likely to be much, MUCH higher than that.). Biden (D) vs. Trump (R) National Polls vs. 4 Years Avg. Bennie Smith 10. (CNN)Amid all of the grilling and fireworks, you may have missed a development that could fundamentally impact the fight for the Senate majority this fall: Amy McGrath beat Charles Booker to win the Kentucky Democratic primary. P. ... Click me! As noted above, she, National Democrats won't likely admit it, publicly at least, but they aren't likely terribly concerned about McGrath's uneven performance on the campaign trail against McConnell as long as she can keep raising tens of millions of dollars to attack the Senate Majority Leader between now and November. John Sharpensteen 9. Amy McGrath mounts bid to oust Mitch McConnell in 2020, WaPo: WH was warned Giuliani was target of Russian misinformation, Brianna Keilar rolls the tape on Trump's debate excuses, Gupta on Christie statement: I wish he'd said it before, 'Manipulated by Trump': Carl Bernstein on NBC town hall, 'Kisses dictators' butts': Republican senator lambasts Trump in leaked call, Florida seniors frustrated over Trump's handling of Covid-19, Two test positive for Covid-19 in Harris' campaign orbit, Democratic senator voted to confirm Barrett to appeals court. In a new CNN poll that released on Monday, presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden led Trump by a staggering 14 percent on the national level. Eric Rothmuller 8. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. In 2014, McConnell won re-election with 56% of the vote to Alison Lundergan Grimes' (D) 41%.